Tensions Ease in Strait of Hormuz as Fragile Ceasefire Sparks Shipping Uncertainty
A fragile ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran is raising cautious hopes of reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz, though major uncertainties remain over its terms and implementation.
According to Associated Press, citing a regional official directly involved in negotiations, the proposed two-week truce includes provisions allowing both Iran and Oman to charge transit fees for ships passing through the strait. However, it is still unclear whether such payments have been formally agreed upon or when they would take effect.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports conflicting interpretations of the deal. Iranian officials suggest they have approved only a limited two-week safe passage window, coordinated with military oversight and subject to technical constraints. In contrast, former U.S. President Donald Trump declared a “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the vital maritime corridor.
The lack of clarity has left global shipping companies scrambling to assess the risks. More than 800 vessels, carrying approximately 20,000 civilian sailors, have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for over 40 days due to the conflict. Before hostilities began, roughly 135 ships transited the strait daily.
Despite the ceasefire announcement, activity remains extremely limited. Within the first five hours after the truce was publicised, only two vessels entered the strait—one reportedly an Iranian oil tanker under international sanctions—both heading toward Iranian territorial waters. Some ships had previously crossed the area during the conflict, but international media reported they paid steep transit fees, estimated at around $2 million per vessel.
In a separate social media statement, Trump said the United States would support the resumption of maritime traffic and maintain a presence to ensure safe passage.
Industry experts warn that restoring normal shipping flows will take time. “You can’t restart global maritime trade overnight,” said Jennifer Parker of the University of Western Australia’s Defence and Security Institute, noting that shipowners, insurers, and crews must be convinced that risks have genuinely diminished.
Similarly, Lewis Hart, head of maritime operations in Asia at a major brokerage firm, described the ceasefire as “a necessary first step,” but emphasised that any recovery in shipping activity is likely to be gradual rather than immediate—even within the two-week window.
Data from maritime analytics firm Kpler shows that fuel-carrying vessels make up the majority of the stranded fleet. This includes 426 crude oil and fuel tankers, 34 ships transporting liquefied petroleum gas, and 19 carrying liquefied natural gas. The remaining vessels are loaded with raw materials, agricultural goods, and containerised cargo destined for global trade.
For now, cautious optimism is tempered by uncertainty, as the world watches whether this temporary truce can truly restore one of the most vital oil shipping routes.
Alternative sources: Bloomberg, Reuters