Fragile Middle East Truce Reopens Strait of Hormuz as Energy Prices Plunge
A two-week ceasefire has been agreed in the Middle East, with the United States and Iran reaching a deal on the “conditional reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz under the coordination of Iranian military forces. Following the announcement, global oil prices dropped sharply by 15%, falling to around $95 per barrel.
UPDATE 11:45 AM: European natural gas futures (TTF benchmark) also saw a steep decline, dropping by as much as 20% to their lowest level in five weeks. The current reference price stands at €44.8 per MWh, reflecting easing concerns over supply disruptions.
Just two hours before the expiration of an ultimatum in which Donald Trump had threatened to “destroy Iranian civilisation,” the U.S. president announced on social media that planned military strikes would be postponed. The attacks had reportedly targeted bridges, power plants, and other civilian infrastructure in Iran. The decision came on the condition that Tehran would accept a temporary ceasefire and allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
UPDATE 6:30 AM: In an interview with Agence France-Presse, Trump described the provisional agreement as “a total and complete victory,” claiming that the issue of uranium would be “perfectly resolved—100 per cent, without doubt.” He added that such assurances were essential to reaching any agreement.
Trump also suggested that China played a role in pushing Iran toward accepting the truce. The ceasefire announcement came shortly after Russia and China blocked a resolution in the United Nations Security Council aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
In a statement posted on X, a White House spokesperson described the development as a major success for the United States. The statement credited Trump and the U.S. military for creating “maximum leverage,” enabling tough negotiations that have now opened the door to a diplomatic solution and the prospect of long-term peace.
Despite the breakthrough, uncertainty remains over how the agreement will be implemented and whether the ceasefire can hold beyond the initial two-week period.